OpenAI's Distribution Bet // AIDRAN

The structure of the TPG-Bain-Brookfield arrangement tells you what the investors actually believe. A 17.5% guaranteed return baked into the deal ^[2] is not the profile of a bet on model quality — it is the profile of a bet on lock-in. The investors are not wagering that OpenAI produces the best output in 2027; they are wagering that switching costs inside 2,000 portfolio companies make the question of 'best output' irrelevant by the time a competitor could plausibly challenge. Distribution as moat is an old playbook. Applied to AI…

OpenAI's Distribution Bet Is Bigger Than Its Product

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