The GPU Shortage That Arrived Late and Won't Leave Early

The AI infrastructure conversation spent most of 2024 debating whether the GPU shortage was real or manufactured — a demand signal inflated by speculative procurement that would normalize once hyperscalers worked through their backlog. That argument is now closed. The compute backlog running 36 to 52 weeks on Blackwell deliveries is not a supply chain delay that will resolve in a quarter; it is the result of $630 billion in annual infrastructure commitments chasing a fabrication capacity that TSMC and its competitors cannot expand on a twelve-month timeline. The analysts…