Infrastructure debt works when the anchor tenant's economics improve over time. Oracle's exposure to OpenAI is premised on that improvement — the build-out gets cheaper per unit of compute, revenue scales faster than cost, and the debt gets serviced. The Jalapeño chip built with Broadcom in a nine-month development cycle is OpenAI's argument that it can engineer its way out of the cost trap. But the $1.60 figure arrived in the market before the Jalapeño rationale could neutralize it, which means Oracle's refinancing conversations are now happening in an environment where the counterargument is already priced in. The creditors pricing those instruments are not waiting for the chip roadmap to prove itself.
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