Forrester's choice of BlackBerry as the analogy is analytically specific in a way that matters . BlackBerry did not lose because its product stopped working — it lost because the platform moat it had built around enterprise email was narrower than it appeared once iOS and Android replicated the function. The parallel Forrester is drawing is not "OpenAI's models will get worse" but rather "the thing OpenAI thought was its defensible position can be replicated by a well-funded competitor with equivalent capability and better pricing."
That framing is more useful than the "OpenAI is doomed" read some will take from it. The