Methods note
Method
How every reading and release is made, what each state of a figure means, and what AIDRAN never publishes. This is the fixed methods note: it changes only by a new version.
- Version
- 005c-series-v3.1
- In effect from
- Not stored: a method version has no start date yet
- Readings made with it
- 3,858all in development
- Earlier versions
- Nonethis is the first
- Contact
- hello@aidran.ai
Every reading links to the version of this note it was made under. Earlier versions stay online at their own links, so a reading can always be checked against the method that made it. The 3,858 readings are the stored series: 3,858 are linked from the 40 summary tables.
Anatomy of a figure
Every number AIDRAN publishes is an object with its conditions attached. This is one, field by field.
One stored figure, drawn large, with every field it carries. It is the first entry in release 2026-W40’s summary table on Reddit, exactly as the database stored it on 8 Oct 2026 at 22:01Z. Each field links to its row in the dictionary.
“People posting about Claude, Reddit” · board.reddit.claude.peopleThe public label, and an id unique within the release: the table, the platform, the subject and the measure.
Dictionary: label10876 · peopleThe number and what it counts. It is null whenever a figure is hidden or not applicable, so a withheld figure has no number to leak.
Dictionary: valuereddit · 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05 · as of 2026-10-08 12:00Z · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518)Exactly which posts it counts: published in the window, which ends the day before its to date, and captured by the as-of time.
Dictionary: population0.9993For people counts: the share of the population with an identifiable author. Posts without one count toward n, never toward people.
Dictionary: author_coverageboard.reddit.claude.peoplen 16,896 posts · Reddit · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518) · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 · author coverage 99.9% · 7 days: 7 active
Its conditions, as stored
- population
platforms: redditwindow: 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05, release (end-exclusive: 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026)as_of: 2026-10-08 12:00Zfilters: posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518) · scope: subject- n · n_unit
16896 · records- author_coverage
0.9993 (99.9%)- runs
541 · 542 · 61 · 64 · 518- provenance
measured · aidran.assemble_releasesql_ref: sql/005c-25_templated_filter.sqlversion: 005c-series-v3.1params: 14, from link_run 541 and check_run 542- sample
10 posts drawn 2026-10-08 22:01:30Zpopulation_n: 16896method: uniform, one post per author_key
Its states, each with its stored reason
- In development
provisionalIn development: the method behind this reading is still being validated. Claude’s posts were linked to it by rule run 541. On Reddit, 964 posts whose only match to Claude is an ambiguous name aren’t counted. Frames and register aren’t measured yet. - In development
provisionalSpam, bot and incentive posts were removed with labels that agree with a stronger model at kappa 0.74, below the 0.80 needed to drop this mark
provisional · provisionalThe most restrictive state is the label, In development here, drawn with a dashed underline. Every state that applies is stored with its reason, printed in full at the foot of the figure.
Dictionary: state[“541”, “542”, “61”, “64”, “518”]The runs behind its judgments: run 541 linked posts to Claude by rule, and run 542 checked those links. Runs 17, 18, 61, 518, 64, 520, 521, 541 and 542 are cited by 41,764 of the 41,764 figures in the 40 stored releases.
Dictionary: runsmeasured · aidran.assemble_release · sql/005c-25_templated_filter.sql · 005c-series-v3.1What computed it: the database function, the file that defines it and the method version, with the 14 parameters it ran with.
Dictionary: provenancepopulation_n 16896 · drawn_at 2026-10-08 22:01:30Z · 10 evidence idsThe frozen sample behind the number, drawn once and stored with the release. Its method, as stored: “uniform, one post per author_key: keep each author_key's post with the smallest md5(seed || '|' || record_id), then the 10 smallest; seed "r_86b26f5daf1f|reddit"; posts whose author_key is null count as their own author; deleted and removed posts stay in the population; posts relevance run 61 labels not about AI or unclear are left out, and so are posts non-discourse run 64 labels spam, bot or incentive; on Reddit and Bluesky, posts templated-repetition rule run 518 flags as one account repeating a template are left out; the people count itself is distinct author_keys among posts with an identifiable author: posts without one ([deleted] or empty) are left out of it, and author_coverage is the share of posts that have one”
- Field 1: label · id
“People posting about Claude, Reddit” · board.reddit.claude.peopleThe public label, and an id unique within the release: the table, the platform, the subject and the measure.
Dictionary: label - Field 2: value · unit
10876 · peopleThe number and what it counts. It is null whenever a figure is hidden or not applicable, so a withheld figure has no number to leak.
Dictionary: value - Field 3: state · state_reasons
provisional · provisionalThe most restrictive state is the label, In development here, drawn with a dashed underline. Every state that applies is stored with its reason, printed in full at the foot of the figure.
Dictionary: state - Field 4: population
reddit · 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05 · as of 2026-10-08 12:00Z · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518)Exactly which posts it counts: published in the window, which ends the day before its to date, and captured by the as-of time.
Dictionary: population - Field 6: author_coverage
0.9993For people counts: the share of the population with an identifiable author. Posts without one count toward n, never toward people.
Dictionary: author_coverage - Field 7: runs
[“541”, “542”, “61”, “64”, “518”]The runs behind its judgments: run 541 linked posts to Claude by rule, and run 542 checked those links. Runs 17, 18, 61, 518, 64, 520, 521, 541 and 542 are cited by 41,764 of the 41,764 figures in the 40 stored releases.
Dictionary: runs - Field 8: provenance
measured · aidran.assemble_release · sql/005c-25_templated_filter.sql · 005c-series-v3.1What computed it: the database function, the file that defines it and the method version, with the 14 parameters it ran with.
Dictionary: provenance - Field 9: sample
population_n 16896 · drawn_at 2026-10-08 22:01:30Z · 10 evidence idsThe frozen sample behind the number, drawn once and stored with the release. Its method, as stored: “
Dictionary: sampleuniform, one post per author_key: keep each author_key's post with the smallest md5(seed || '|' || record_id), then the 10 smallest; seed "r_86b26f5daf1f|reddit"; posts whose author_key is null count as their own author; deleted and removed posts stay in the population; posts relevance run 61 labels not about AI or unclear are left out, and so are posts non-discourse run 64 labels spam, bot or incentive; on Reddit and Bluesky, posts templated-repetition rule run 518 flags as one account repeating a template are left out; the people count itself is distinct author_keys among posts with an identifiable author: posts without one ([deleted] or empty) are left out of it, and author_coverage is the share of posts that have one”
Claude · people · Reddit · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 (W40) · as of 8 Oct 2026 12:00Z · in development. Source: release 2026-W40, summary table, Reddit, entry 1, people; the reading r_86b26f5daf1f stores the same figure. Post text is never shown here: the sample is its count and method.
1How a reading is made
A reading measures one subject over one week of posts. Posts are counted by when they were published, not when AIDRAN captured them. A reading has seven parts, and every figure in it carries its conditions.
The seven parts of a reading
How many distinct people posted about the subject on each platform, and its share of each platform’s posts against its normal share.
Counted by the time a post was published, per platform, against the subject’s own baseline from earlier weeks, with minimum counts.
Ranked by raw volume, or added across platforms.
Which platforms and communities the conversation happened in, each community with its type.
Read from each post’s own data: a fact, with no model.
Blended into one number.
Three to six frames, each as a share of the subject’s posts on each platform.
An AI language model proposes the frames, a model assigns posts to them, and a double-coded sample measures agreement.
Shown without their agreement.
The tone each frame is written in, as a full distribution over a fixed list of labels.
A fixed label set, a minimum n, and each platform’s own baseline.
Reduced to a change in the top label.
What differs from the previous stored reading of the same subject.
A comparison between two stored readings, with both endpoints and their weeks shown.
Rewritten as a headline.
Quoted posts for every frame, and a fixed sample of up to 10 posts behind every number.
Each quote is verbatim, with handles shown as @[user], and links to the original unless the link would name its author.
Paraphrased, invented, or shown with its author.
Population, coverage, author coverage, n, runs, agreement, settled days and how fresh the facts were.
Computed with every figure and frozen with the reading when it’s created.
Left off, or put in a footnote.
Posts that aren’t about AI, and non-discourse posts (spam, bots, and incentive posts such as invite-code exchanges), are left out of shares. What was left out is stated in each figure’s population, one figure per platform, never combined.
Readings never change. Their conditions are a snapshot taken when the reading is created, so a figure can always be checked against what it rested on at the time. A re-run makes a new reading, and change is always measured between two stored readings.
2Facts, judgments and runs
Runs 17, 18, 61, 518, 64, 520, 521, 541 and 542 are cited by 41,764 of the 41,764 figures in the stored releases. This section lists them from what the figures store.
Every value AIDRAN publishes rests on facts, on judgments, or on both, and the two are kept apart. Facts can be re-derived at any time. Judgments carry the model, version and run that made them.
n 15,000 posts · Reddit · every post on the platform · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518) · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 · 7 days: 7 active · as of 8 Oct 2026 12:00Z · counted from posts’ own data · aidran.assemble_release · no run
n 16,896 posts · subject links by run 541, checked by run 542 · agreement: not measured yet (no model-labelled figure is stored)
The runs behind the stored releases
Every stored release’s figures cite runs 17, 18, 61, 518, 64, 520, 521, 541 and 542; 0 cite no run.
Every figure in the stored releases, one square each (W01–W40, 40 releases; none skipped), as of 8 Oct 2026 12:00Z, in development. Filled: the figure’s runs field names runs 17, 18, 61, 518, 64, 520, 521, 541 and 542 (41,764 of 41,764). Hollow: figures counted from posts’ own data, such as each release’s platform totals, which cite no run.
- Cited by
- 41,764 of the 41,764 release figures
- Finished
- 2026-10-08 14:23:44Z
- Last record id
- 93428502
- Labeler, version, n
- Not in a public read yet
From each figure’s provenance parameters; the run’s own record isn’t read by the site yet.
- Cited by
- the same 41,764 figures
- Labeler, version, n
- Not in a public read yet
From the stored in-development reasons, which quote run 542’s check.
3What each state means
A state is part of the data, not a style. Every figure is in exactly one state, shown by its label, and every state that applies to it is listed with its reason.
| State | What it means | What you see, for example | Never |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShownNo label on the page | Measured, and every condition is met. | No figure is in this state yet. | A number without its conditions. |
| In development | Measured, but the method is still being validated. The number has a dashed underline and the reason beside it. | People posting about Claude, Reddit10,876people In development n 16,896 posts · Reddit · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518) · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 · author coverage 99.9% · 7 days: 7 active | Looking the same as a finished figure. |
| Hidden | Its n or its agreement is below the stated threshold (section 4). The reason stands in its place. | GPT-Live’s share of Reddit postsHidden. n 17 posts, below the threshold of 20 posts n 17 posts · Reddit · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518) · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 · 7 days: 7 active | A zero, a blank dash, or an estimate. |
| Settling | Its week includes days still filling in (section 5). A count shows its floor, “at least”; a share shows no number. | No figure is in this state yet. | Looking final. |
| Partial coverage | A day in its week was partial or low capture, or its platform wasn’t collecting continuously. The number stays, with the issue named beside it. | No figure is in this state yet. | Hiding the issue in a footnote. |
| Not applicable | The figure doesn’t exist for this population: people for articles, which have no authors, or change when there’s no earlier reading. | People posting about Claude, arXivarXiv posts are articles, which have no authors, so people aren’t counted n 12 posts · arXiv · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518) · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 · author coverage 0.0% · 7 days: 7 active | A zero. |
Figure states, and what each shows
ShownNo label on the page
- What it means
- Measured, and every condition is met.
- What you see, for example
No figure is in this state yet.
- Never
- A number without its conditions.
In development
- What it means
- Measured, but the method is still being validated. The number has a dashed underline and the reason beside it.
- What you see, for example
People posting about Claude, Reddit
10,876peopleIn development
n 16,896 posts · Reddit · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518) · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 · author coverage 99.9% · 7 days: 7 active
- Never
- Looking the same as a finished figure.
Hidden
- What it means
- Its n or its agreement is below the stated threshold (section 4). The reason stands in its place.
- What you see, for example
GPT-Live’s share of Reddit posts
Hidden. n 17 posts, below the threshold of 20 postsn 17 posts · Reddit · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518) · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 · 7 days: 7 active
- Never
- A zero, a blank dash, or an estimate.
Settling
- What it means
- Its week includes days still filling in (section 5). A count shows its floor, “at least”; a share shows no number.
- What you see, for example
No figure is in this state yet.
- Never
- Looking final.
Partial coverage
- What it means
- A day in its week was partial or low capture, or its platform wasn’t collecting continuously. The number stays, with the issue named beside it.
- What you see, for example
No figure is in this state yet.
- Never
- Hiding the issue in a footnote.
Not applicable
- What it means
- The figure doesn’t exist for this population: people for articles, which have no authors, or change when there’s no earlier reading.
- What you see, for example
People posting about Claude, arXiv
arXiv posts are articles, which have no authors, so people aren’t counted
n 12 posts · arXiv · posts not about AI or unclear removed (relevance run 61); spam, bot and incentive posts removed (run 64); templated automated posts removed on Reddit and Bluesky (templated-repetition rule run 518) · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 · author coverage 0.0% · 7 days: 7 active
- Never
- A zero.
When several apply, the most restrictive wins, in this order:
Not applicable › Hidden › Settling › In development › Partial coverage › Shown
So a hidden figure still says it’s in development, and which of its days were partial.
Publication states
Releases and readings carry states of their own.
- Not yet published
- A release still settling. Counts show as floors, shares are withheld, and nothing on it can be cited until every day it covers has settled. The mark sits inside every figure’s own frame, so a cropped screenshot still carries it.
- In development
- A reading or release made while its methods are still being validated. It is published, and labeled as in development, with why and when the label is expected to go.
- Revision
- A new reading of the same subject and week, made with more data or a better method. The reading it replaces stays online.
- Correction
- A fix for a mistake, issued as a new reading. The original stays online with a dated notice saying which figures moved.
4Thresholds for hidden figures
Decided on 24 Sep. The chart shows which stored W40 figures each threshold reaches.
A figure is hidden when there isn’t enough behind it to publish: too few posts or people, or too little agreement between labelers. The thresholds were set on 24 Sep 2026, before launch, and a change to them is a new version of this note.
When a figure is hidden
- Counts and shares
- n 20 in the figure’s own unit: people, posts, or the subject’s posts for a share. One value for every platform.
- Set 24 Sep 2026
- Change between weeks
- 100 in both weeks.
- Set 24 Sep 2026
- Model-labelled figures
- Agreement κ 0.67 to show, and κ 0.80 to show without “provisional”, on at least 200 double-coded posts.
- Set 24 Sep 2026
- Filters
- Relevance and non-discourse apply at κ 0.60 or more, provisional below 0.80.
- Set 24 Sep 2026
- Frames
- 200 posts about AI per subject, platform and week.
- Set 24 Sep 2026
- Revision
- Late posts that move a published figure by 1% or more revise it.
- Set 24 Sep 2026
The threshold, drawn
Every figure in 2026-W40’s summary tables, placed by its n. Each platform has its own row, and nothing is added across them.
- stored as shown (in development)
- stored as hidden
- 20, the threshold now
2026-W40, 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026, as of 8 Oct 2026 12:00Z, in development: 340 people figures and 510 share figures from its summary tables. A people figure sits at its people count: its value when shown, the n its hidden reason states when hidden. A share sits at its n posts. People on arXiv and Exa are not applicable (170 figures). No stored figure is model-labelled yet, so the κ thresholds hide nothing today.
5Settling
What settled, and by which rule, in each stored week.
Posts keep arriving after the day they were published. A day is settled on a platform once the share of its posts still expected to arrive is under the settling threshold, and a release waits until every day it covers has settled.
- Threshold
- 0.5% of a day’s posts still expected to arrive
- Applies to
- Every platform while it’s actively collecting, with one threshold for all
- arXiv
- Settles by batch, on the next announcement
- Set
- 23 Sep 2026
- Reviewed
- Once each platform’s settling curve rests on 7 days
- Release day
- Wednesday, once every day of the week before has settled; a release is ready around 04:00 UTC
Settling as it happened
W01–W37, 24 releases; W10, W11, W12, W13, W14, W15, W16, W17, W18, W19, W20, W21, W22 not stored: the same settling pattern throughout, 28 not applicable: not started · 21 settled at load (from an archive).
21 settled at load (from an archive) · 21 not applicable: earlier method · 7 not applicable: not started.
21 settled at load (from an archive) · 21 not applicable: earlier method · 7 not applicable: not started.
21 settled at load (from an archive) · 21 not applicable: earlier method · 7 not applicable: not started.
21 settled at load (from an archive) · 21 not applicable: earlier method · 7 not applicable: not started.
- settled by curve
- settled by batch (arXiv)
- settled at load (from an archive)
- not settled yet
- not applicable: not started
- not applicable: earlier method
- not applicable: lane since stopped
- not applicable: no lane
- not applicable: episodic
The curve rule
Each platform has a settling curve: how late posts arrived on its past days, pooled, hour by hour after a day ends. A day is settled when less than 0.5% of its posts are still expected. Until an hour of the curve rests on 7 days, the settled status is treated as preliminary.
The batch rule, for arXiv
arXiv arrives as one nightly batch. A day is settled once a complete batch, captured after the day ended, has carried a later day. A day with no papers is held until they arrive, or for 72 hours after the rule would have settled it; then it settles as “nothing captured”.
Where settling doesn’t apply
Only an actively collecting platform settles. A day that was not started, episodic or had no lane is not applicable, and so is a day from a lane that has since stopped, such as Google News on 16 and 17 Sep.
Each release’s 49 platform-days, drawn by the settling basis stored for each day, as of 8 Oct 2026 12:00Z. Each platform’s days are on Coverage, day by day.
6Evidence and the frozen sample
The method and the population size are read from the figure’s stored sample.
Every number opens its posts. Choose Sample posts on any figure with a value and you get a fixed sample of up to 10 posts from its population, each quoted verbatim and linked to where it was published.
- 1 A numberPeople posting about Claude, Reddit: 10,876 people, in development.
- 2 Its populationpopulation_n 16,896: every post the figure counts.
- 3 Its sample10 posts, drawn once on 8 Oct 2026 at 22:01Z and stored with the release.
- 4 The postEach quote links out to where it was published, unless the link would name its author. Handles show as @[user].
“uniform, one post per author_key: keep each author_key's post with the smallest md5(seed || '|' || record_id), then the 10 smallest; seed "r_86b26f5daf1f|reddit"; posts whose author_key is null count as their own author; deleted and removed posts stay in the population; posts relevance run 61 labels not about AI or unclear are left out, and so are posts non-discourse run 64 labels spam, bot or incentive; on Reddit and Bluesky, posts templated-repetition rule run 518 flags as one account repeating a template are left out; the people count itself is distinct author_keys among posts with an identifiable author: posts without one ([deleted] or empty) are left out of it, and author_coverage is the share of posts that have one”, from 16,896 posts.
The seed is the reading id and the platform, so the same reading always draws the same posts. The page gives the method and the size of the population behind every sample.
No sample for withheld figures: hidden, settling and not-applicable figures have none, because a sample of a withheld figure would reveal it.
Claude · people · Reddit · W40 · the sample’s method and population size as stored. Post text is never shown here; on the reading page the posts appear under Sample posts.
7Revisions and corrections
A published reading’s figures never change. When something must change, AIDRAN publishes a new reading with its own permanent link, and the old reading stays online with a dated notice.
Revision
A new reading of the same subject and week, made with more data or a better method. It links back to the reading it supersedes, and that reading stays online.
Correction
A fix for a mistake. It’s issued as a new reading. The original stays online, and its reading page carries a dated notice that says which figures moved, by how much, and links to the corrected reading.
3,805 notices are stored so far.
8What’s never published
Methods, definitions, coverage, agreement and every reading are public. Some things never are.
- Authors
- No author, handle or profile of any person appears anywhere on AIDRAN. People are counted as pseudonymous platform identities, and those identities are never shown or linked across platforms. A person can be a subject only as a public figure, never as an author.
- Downloads of posts
- There are no full lists of posts, no bulk exports and no downloads of posts. The posts behind a number are a fixed sample of up to 10, and each links out to where it was published. Posts stay internal because of platform terms and privacy.
- People added across platforms
- One person can post on several platforms, so people are counted per platform and never added together. There is no total of people across platforms.
Cite this note
AIDRAN. ‘Method’, version 005c-series-v3.1.
Permanent link /method/005c-series-v3.1
Cite the version, not /method, which always shows the current one.